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		<title>Market Has Almost Wiped Out Gains of This Year</title>
		<link>http://www.dodgingthedepression.com/market-has-almost-wiped-out-gains-of-this-year/</link>
		<comments>http://www.dodgingthedepression.com/market-has-almost-wiped-out-gains-of-this-year/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 18 May 2012 11:33:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[""Generally speaking, economists and money managers are typically one-note bulls. They always give you a rosy forecast. But look how much you lost in your real estate investments, and how much you are still losing, thanks to them. Look how much you have lost in your stocks since 1999, too. But did they ever tell [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<pre>""Generally speaking, economists and money managers</pre>
<pre>are typically one-note bulls. They always give you</pre>
<pre>a rosy forecast. But look how much you lost in your</pre>
<pre> real estate investments, and how much you are still</pre>
<pre> losing, thanks to them. Look how much you have lost</pre>
<pre>in your stocks since 1999, too. But did they ever</pre>
<pre>tell you to sell? No, never. And they still won't</pre>
<pre>say it. On the contrary, now that the stock market</pre>
<pre>has more than doubled, they're telling you that</pre>
<pre>it's safe to load the boat. That's what they</pre>
<pre>said in 1999 and 2006, throwing you under</pre>
<pre>the bus both times.

Today everyone who was bearish on stocks in</pre>
<pre> March 2009 is back to being bullish.</pre>
<pre>Consider these recent headlines:

    Global Strategists Abandoning Bearish</pre>
<pre>Views – Bloomberg
    Stop the Presses, Dr. Doom is Turning</pre>
<pre>Bullish – Bloomberg
    BlackRock...Says Investors Should Be 100%</pre>
<pre>Equities – Bloomberg
    Iran Anxiety No Match for Central Bankers Sedating</pre>
<pre>Investors With Cheap Cash – Bloomberg
    ...Nasdaq Bull Market Leaves Bearish</pre>
<pre>Outlook Behind – Bloomberg
    ...Low Volume Means Bull Run May Last – Bloomberg
    Warren Buffet: Why Stocks Beat Gold and Bonds – Bloomberg
    Enter the Bull – Barron’s
    You Have To Be In It To Win It – MarketWatch

Who's left? We are.

That's right. The financial media say bears</pre>
<pre> are extinct or in hiding. But not here at</pre>
<pre>Elliott Wave International! We are back on</pre>
<pre> our mountain peak, standing tall and roaring.</pre>
<pre> We are not shy about it. We are not</pre>
<pre>apologetic. We are not tentative.

We have 300 years of market history and</pre>
<pre>50 years of market indicators on our side.</pre>
<pre> Everything else is a waste of time.</pre>
<pre>And we can tell you: The stock market today</pre>
<pre> is overleveraged, over-owned and overvalued.</pre>
<pre> That is why, at this time, we are unequivocal bears.

We don't care if the market grinds a bit</pre>
<pre>higher this year.( By the way it will not</pre>
<pre>happen any more this year  because of</pre>
<pre>indicators flashed today-Ken) It is just</pre>
<pre>lulling the optimists further into</pre>
<pre>complacency, so they can siren-call their</pre>
<pre>followers to self-destruction, again. But</pre>
<pre> right now we recommend a whole different</pre>
<pre>stance. Yes, we expect to identify another</pre>
<pre> good market bottom when it arrives, but now is not it.

Wake up!

    1.) We did not have a "Great Recession" that</pre>
<pre>is over; we are in a depression
    2.) We did not just start a multi-decade bull</pre>
<pre> market; we are near the end of a bear market</pre>
<pre>rally( Which Has ended-Ken)

    3.) We are not in the comforting arms of</pre>
<pre>endless "liquidity" from a generous Fed; we</pre>
<pre>are on the precipice of a looming worldwide</pre>
<pre>credit crisis.

Do you think this language is too strong?</pre>
<pre>We think it's conservative. 

If you can't handle this kind of talk, exit now.</pre>
<pre> We'll be happy to have you join us later,</pre>
<pre>when the S&amp;P is having 40-point down days."  --Elliott

Enclosed charts show that Dow Jones Transportation</pre>
<pre> Index has wiped out all gains of This year. Same</pre>
<pre>is true of Russell 2000.   RUT  has wiped out all</pre>
<pre>gains of this year.(TZA is already up 45% from</pre>
<pre>its lows and will double again from here.
Nasdaq, Sp500 and DJI will soon follow. We are</pre>
<pre>at the start of the most bearish portion of this</pre>
<pre>decline 3rd leg down which will last at least</pre>
<pre>a year if not more. NYA  which is the average of new york stocks</pre>
<p>has also gone below where it was on Jan 1, 2012<br />
<a href="http://www.dodgingthedepression.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/chartsNYA2012-05-17_1447.png"><img class="alignleft size-medium wp-image-411" title="NYA Chart s of May 16, 2012" src="http://www.dodgingthedepression.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/chartsNYA2012-05-17_1447-300x146.png" alt="" width="300" height="146" /></a><br />
<a href="http://www.dodgingthedepression.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/charts-Russell2012-05-17_1448.png"><img class="alignleft size-medium wp-image-412" title="Russell 2000" src="http://www.dodgingthedepression.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/charts-Russell2012-05-17_1448-300x169.png" alt="" width="300" height="169" /></a><br />
<a href="http://www.dodgingthedepression.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/chartsNasdaq2012-05-17_1450.png"><img class="alignleft size-medium wp-image-413" title="Nasdaq" src="http://www.dodgingthedepression.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/chartsNasdaq2012-05-17_1450-300x133.png" alt="" width="300" height="133" /></a></p>
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		<title>Decline to New Lows Should Start Soon</title>
		<link>http://www.dodgingthedepression.com/decline-to-new-lows-should-start-soon/</link>
		<comments>http://www.dodgingthedepression.com/decline-to-new-lows-should-start-soon/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 04 Jan 2012 16:37:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.dodgingthedepression.com/?p=392</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[2011 came to an end with most markets around the world declining from 10 % to 70%. The only market which was up was the DJIA index which was up 5%. Nasdaq was down 2% while Russell 2000 was down 7%. In 2012 , Russell 2000 will also decline the most. US stock markets made [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<table>
<td>
2011 came to an end with most markets around the world<br />
declining from 10 % to 70%. The only market which was up was the DJIA<br />
index which was up 5%.<br />
Nasdaq was down 2% while<br />
Russell 2000 was down 7%.<br />
In 2012 , Russell 2000 will  also decline the most.<br />
US stock markets made the peak on May 2, 2011 and made a<br />
 low in early Oct<br />
in 5 steps down ( Thus we completed leg (1) down in early Oct.) Since<br />
that time we have had leg (2) up in a complex double zig-Zag rising into Seasonal Christmas and new year rally.<br />
We believe that the probability is very high that the market is now ready<br />
 for decline under leg (3) </td>
</table>
<p>  See <a href="http://www.dodgingthedepression.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/DJI2012-01-04_0742.pdf" target="_blank">DJI2012-01-04_0742</a>  </p>
<pre>See also the chart of Russell 2000 <a href="http://www.dodgingthedepression.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/Russell-20002012-01-04_0756.pdf"target="_blank">Russell 20002012-01-04_0756</a></pre>
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		<title>Joy Kapur&#8217;s Birthday Celebration</title>
		<link>http://www.dodgingthedepression.com/joy-kapurs-birthday-celebration/</link>
		<comments>http://www.dodgingthedepression.com/joy-kapurs-birthday-celebration/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 02 Jan 2012 18:10:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.dodgingthedepression.com/?p=368</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[  70th Birthday Party For Joy Kapur- First Half 70th BirthdayParty &#8211; Second Half  ( one minute overlap-sorry about that) We Had to divide into Two parts as the Web site will not accept more than 1000 MB Click on square on the  bottom right hand  corner to fill up the computer screen.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<pre> 
<strong><a href="http://www.viddler.com/explore/Kanwar99/videos/13/ " target="_blank"> 70th Birthday Party For Joy Kapur- First Half</a></strong></pre>
<p><strong><a href="http://www.viddler.com/explore/kanwar99/videos/12/" target="_blank">70th BirthdayParty &#8211; Second Half</a> </strong> ( one minute overlap-sorry about that)</p>
<p>We Had to divide into Two parts as the Web site will not accept more than 1000 MB</p>
<p>Click on square on the  bottom right hand  corner to fill up the computer screen.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Will Indian Miracle Continue?</title>
		<link>http://www.dodgingthedepression.com/will-indian-miracle-continue-while-rest-of-the-world-headed-towards-depression/</link>
		<comments>http://www.dodgingthedepression.com/will-indian-miracle-continue-while-rest-of-the-world-headed-towards-depression/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 18 Dec 2011 17:18:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.dodgingthedepression.com/?p=360</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[// // // ]]&#62; January 1, 2012 2012, the year when Lokpal movement will play a bigger role Dec. 18, 2011 See The Article Below Hardly "Incredible India" By Alistair Scrutton and Manoj Kumar NEW DELHI (Reuters) - Frustrated executives while away time in five-star hotels waiting for deals that never come, and civil servants play [...]]]></description>
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<p>January 1, 2012 <a href="http://www.dnaindia.com/india/report_2012-the-year-when-lokpal-movement-will-play-a-bigger-role_1631759" target="_blank">2012, the year when Lokpal movement will play a bigger role</a></pre>
<p>Dec. 18, 2011 See The Article Below<br />
<strong>Hardly "Incredible India"<br />
</strong><br />
By Alistair Scrutton and Manoj Kumar<br />
NEW DELHI (Reuters) - Frustrated executives while away time in five-star hotels waiting for deals that never come, and civil servants play video games in their offices - growing signs of the reform limbo and crisis of confidence behind India's economic malaise.<br />
Policy paralysis, corruption scandals and a government fearful of political backlash to any bold moves have combined with the global slowdown and worsening domestic finances in the last few months to derail Asia's third-largest economy.<br />
India now faces the worst-case scenario that was touted earlier this year - stubbornly high inflation, slowing growth, a mounting fiscal deficit, a rupee that risks freefall -- and both policymakers and the Reserve Bank of India (:RBIRBInull) have few levers to fix it.<br />
For years, Indian entrepreneurs have boasted they can do business despite the government - adeptly working around potholed roads, clogged ports and reams of regulatory hurdles.<br />
But government inertia - what many politicians see as "playing safe" - is taking its toll on corporate confidence.<br />
Entrepreneurs once feted in Bollywood movies as national heroes, whose million-dollar homes and jetset lifestyles were a beacon for millions of India's aspiring middle classes, no longer seem capable of driving the $1.6 trillion economy.<br />
"We may have seen phases of economic growth slower than this in the two post-reform decades, but never has the entrepreneurial mood been so low," wrote Shekhar Gupta, editor-in-chief of the Indian Express.<br />
It's echoed across offices of business leaders from Mumbai to Delhi. One foreign executive described increasingly strained telephone conversations over the past year with his U.S.-based CEO as deals became mired in red tape and ministerial inertia.<br />
"They always understood that India was difficult to do business in. But not this difficult," said the executive, who asked not to be named as he was not authorised to speak for his company.<br />
The banking sector is now under strain from bad loans.<br />
Economic reforms that may bring in much-needed foreign investment, such as opening up the supermarket sector to the likes of Wal-Mart Stores Inc (NYSE:WMT - NewsWMT.N), have been put on hold as political parties eye important state polls next year.<br />
Even reforms seen as no-brainers politically, such as the introduction of a digitalised national ID card or food subsidies for the poor, have faced delays as opposition parties and coalition partners smell blood ahead of a 2014 general election.<br />
FROM COCKY TO FEARFUL<br />
India used to be full of brash business leaders.<br />
When Tata Steel (:TISC.NSTISC.NS) bought an Anglo-Dutch rival in 2007 for $12 billion, the newspaper headline "Empire Strikes Back" epitomised the supreme confidence of India's aggressive capitalist kingpins then on a global buying spree. Jaguar, Land Rover and other foreign brands soon followed into Indian hands.<br />
The economy may grow at under 7 percent this fiscal year, down from initial forecasts of 9 percent. That's still a far cry from the around 3.5 percent "Hindu" rate of growth that plagued the decades after India's independence from Britain in 1947.<br />
But these last few heady years have changed expectations.<br />
These days, growth below 7 percent is enough for investors to delay projects, for banks to put off loans and for voters to get angry: 7 percent is the new 2-3 percent.<br />
It was corruption scams surfacing over a year ago that may have started it - a potentially $39 billion scam involving selling telecoms licenses at rock-bottom prices effectively saw distracted politicians asleep at the economic wheel.<br />
Suddenly politicians were jailed and billionaires questioned by police. It sent shudders through the political class. The invincibility of the political "untouchables" disappeared.<br />
Inside India's famously bureaucratic ministries, middle-level civil servants passed the buck to top-level officials who in turn passed the buck to their reluctant political masters.<br />
One defence contractor, who asked to not be named due to the sensitivity of the issue, recounted spending weeks at a top hotel, sipping drinks every evening with fellow frustrated arms dealers waiting for "imminent" defence ministry decisions that never came.<br />
An Indian executive likened the country's economic malaise and government's reform limbo to an old village adage - a bullock knows that if it goes to work in the field it could get whipped, while the animal that lazes around far away does not.<br />
"Once the spotlight is on, even minor mistakes become noticeable," said the vice-president of an infrastructure firm about a slowdown in decision making ever since corruption scandals broke last year. "That's why nobody wants to take decisions."<br />
Many civil servants have been seen playing computer games during official hours when parliament sessions are adjourned or their minister goes on trips for G20 or World Bank meetings, according to one government official.<br />
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh may be reform-minded. But with real power lying with the populist-inclined Sonia Gandhi, he has been unable or unwilling to press for new steps to modernise and open up the economy.<br />
With Gandhi ill, reportedly with cancer, there are signs the family dynasty that has run India for decades has lost its bearings, increasingly unable to keep its coalition partners in line as parties jostle for power before the 2014 election.<br />
The cabinet's one sudden announcement of major reform - allowing foreign firms to hold 51 percent stakes in the supermarket sector - may have been partly driven by economic panic as the rupee plummeted, with Asia's worst-performing currency suffering from capital flight to safe havens like U.S. Treasuries.<br />
But Singh's about-turn only 10 days later in the face of a political backlash underscored that, even at a time of alarm over the economy, politics and the concern about forthcoming elections took precedence.<br />
FLOWS SLOW, CONFIDENCE EBBS<br />
India's annual financing requirement of $119 billion is the highest in Asia, according to a Nomura report. The trade gap for the fiscal year to March 2012 is expected to widen sharply to $155-$160 billion from $104.4 billion a year ago.<br />
Foreign funds are net sellers of about $300 million of Indian shares this year in sharp contrast to record investment of more than $29 billion in 2010, and the 30-share BSE Sensex is down more than 23 percent, making it the worst-performing major global market this year.<br />
"Industry is geared up to deliver infrastructure in line with the strong growth pattern and the government's forecasts," said Russell Waugh, managing director of Leighton Welspun Contractors, part of Australia's Leighton Holdings (ASX:LEI.AX - NewsLEI.AX).<br />
"But the flow (of new projects) at the moment, the real flow, is not aligned with that gearing. So we're seeing most companies struggling."<br />
Infrastructure assets, including telecoms, construction and power, which account for about 25 percent of total corporate credit, are now a key concern for banks.<br />
Worries about rising bad loans prompted Moody's Investors Service earlier this month to cut its outlook on India's banking sector to "negative" from "stable", saying monetary tightening and a slowdown in the economy would cut bank loan growth.<br />
The car industry - a symbol of the aspirations of millions of India's middle classes - is now an example of how slipping growth and high interest rates have hit consumer demand and investment decisions.<br />
Car sales in India, which jumped 30 percent in the last fiscal year, have slumped due to high interest rates and rising input costs. Sales may just break even this fiscal year.<br />
Maruti Suzuki (:MRTI.NSMRTI.NS), India's biggest automaker, is deferring an investment of $560-740 million in plants in the western state of Gujarat due to the economic gloom.<br />
"When we will start work in Gujarat will depend on how the market improves in the future ... at the moment the general economic situation is too negative to justify it," Maruti Chairman R. C. Bhargava told Reuters. "There's no point creating excess capacity if the demand is not there."<br />
NO QUICK FIX<br />
There is no quick fix for the government, with the fiscal deficit set to beat its target of 4.6 percent of GDP. But there is little sign of efforts to help investment, including speeding up approvals of projects hit by red tape and environmental approvals.<br />
One official, monitoring government infrastructure projects, said that of 558 government projects, 241 were delayed as of end-July, resulting in a cost overrun of some 20 percent, or more than $31 billion.<br />
The projects, which include setting up airports, new railway lines, shipping ports, roads and power plants, have been delayed by more than two years on average due to issues of land acquisition, environmental clearance and rising costs.<br />
Senior government officials, who declined to be named, described a finance ministry dominated by 76-year-old Pranab Mukherjee, who is more adept at bringing together unruly coalition allies than doing anything bold about the economy.<br />
"Mukherjee is a politician first with little time for his own ministry as he is also the chief trouble shooter for the Congress party. Many bureaucrats don't even get to see him for days and have no access to him," said one.<br />
"His style is very old world and some say not very responsive to financial markets. It's not surprising that in a crisis like what's confronting us currently, lack of imaginative leadership in the treasury department is also reflecting in the economic woes facing the country."<br />
Mukherjee first became finance minister in 1982, way before India had begun to rethink its post-independence socialist, state-driven economic model.<br />
For many, India will remain in limbo only until a real crisis prompts it to act - similar to the 1991 balance of payments crisis that ushered in the country's first economic reforms under Singh, who was then finance minister.<br />
"At the end of the day, I feel you need crisis to get going again," said V Ravichander, who advises multinationals on doing business. "And even though our growth rates have fallen from 8 to 6.9 percent on the last estimate, I guess people feel 6.9 is not still low enough for us to do something about it."<br />
But that inertia could means India faces some turbulent years ahead, exacerbated by the 2014 election that may just polarise the country further.<br />
"The new Hindu Rate of Growth is 6 percent and on all evidence, from macroeconomic data to the empty billboards of Mumbai, we're headed there next year," wrote Gupta.<br />
"Returning to economic stagnation like that is bad enough by itself. But this is not the forgiving India of the past. This India has tasted growth, progress, optimism and aspiration."<br />
(Additional reporting by Matthias Williams in New Delhi; Henry Foy, Swati Pandey, Rajesh Kurup and Ketan Bondre in Mumbai; Editing by John Chalmers and Ian Geoghegan)<br />
@YahooINFinance on Twitter, become a fan on Facebook </p>
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		<title>Gold&amp; Silver Can Go Lower</title>
		<link>http://www.dodgingthedepression.com/stock-market-going-much-below-10400-so-will-gold/</link>
		<comments>http://www.dodgingthedepression.com/stock-market-going-much-below-10400-so-will-gold/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 14 Dec 2011 17:42:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.dodgingthedepression.com/?p=352</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[// // // ]]&#62; Stock Market Going Much Lower Below DJI 10400.Gold also Going Much Lower.See the article below Gold Could Go Down to $1,600/ozt. &#8211; Even Lower &#8211; in this Correction! Here&#8217;s Why // // // ]]&#62; By Nu Yu, Ph.D.        Dec 13 2011 12:10PM www.munKNEE.com Gold is in the bump phase of a [...]]]></description>
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<p align="left">Stock Market Going Much Lower Below DJI 10400.Gold also Going Much Lower.See the article below</p>
<p align="left"><strong>Gold Could Go Down to $1,600/ozt. &#8211; Even Lower &#8211; in this Correction! Here&#8217;s Why</strong></p>
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<td>By Nu Yu, Ph.D.    <a href="http://www.kitco.com/ind/Yu/dec132011.html"><img src="http://www.kitco.com/images/commmentary/bio.gif" alt="" width="20" height="14" align="bottom" border="0" /></a> <a href="mailto:nuyu@charter.net"><img src="http://www.kitco.com/images/mailicon.gif" alt="" width="27" height="23" align="bottom" border="0" /></a> <a href="http://www.kitco.com/ind/Yu/printerfriendly/dec132011.html"><img src="http://www.kitco.com/images/printicon.gif" alt="Printer Friendly Version" width="27" height="23" align="bottom" border="0" /></a> <a href="http://www.addthis.com/bookmark.php?v=20"><img src="http://s7.addthis.com/static/btn/lg-addthis-en.gif" alt="Bookmark and Share" width="125" height="16" /></a><br />
Dec 13 2011 12:10PM</td>
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<td align="center" width="50"><img src="http://www.kitco.com/images/commmentary/share/bg_trans.gif" alt="" width="50" height="8" /></td>
<td><a href="http://www.munKNEE.com/">www.munKNEE.com</a></td>
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<p>Gold is in the bump phase of a seven-year Bump-and-Run Reversal Top pattern which typically occurs when excessive speculation drives prices up steeply, and is now at a critical juncture which could change the long-term trend of gold. Silver is already in the run phase which does not bode well for its future price. Let me explain.</p>
<p>According to Thomas Bulkowski, the Bump-and-Run Reversal Top pattern consists of three main phases:</p>
<ol type="1" start="1">
<li>A <strong>lead-in phase</strong> in which a lead-in trend line connecting the lows has a slope angle of about 30 degrees. Prices move in an orderly manner and the range of price oscillation defines the lead-in height between the lead-in trend line and the warning line which is parallel to the lead-in trend line.</li>
<li>A <strong>bump phase</strong> where, after prices cross above the warning line, excessive speculation kicks in and the bump phase starts with fast rising prices following a sharp trend line slope with 45 degrees or more until prices reach a bump height with at least twice the lead-in height. Once the second parallel line gets crossed over, it serves as a sell line.</li>
<li>A <strong>run phase</strong> in which prices break support from the lead-in trend line in a downhill run.</li>
</ol>
<p><strong>A Look at the Future for Gold</strong></p>
<p>The seven year weekly chart below for gold offers a cautious early view regarding the long term trend of gold and is an updated version of a previous article entitled How Low Will Gold Go in This Correction?  Gold has been in the bump phase of the Bump-and-Run Reversal Top pattern since late 2009 after almost three years in the lead-in phase.</p>
<p>As can be seen in the chart below the major decline over the past few days has dragged the price of gold sharply below the sell line which suggests the formation of a long-term Bump-and-Run Reversal Top for gold.</p>
<p>If prices keep staying in the territory under the sell line, gold could get into a bear market going forward into 2012 with downside price targets as follows:</p>
<ol type="1" start="1">
<li><strong>$1,600</strong> for support from the trend line of last three years.</li>
<li><strong>$1,400</strong> for support from the warning line.</li>
<li><strong>$1,000</strong> for support from the lead-in trend line.</li>
</ol>
<p><img src="http://www.kitco.com/ind/Yu/images/yu_20111213_1.gif" alt="" /></p>
<p><strong>A Look at the Future for Silver</strong></p>
<p>Silver also has a bearish picture with a bump-and-run reversal top pattern in its intermediate-term timeframe.  Silver has been in this run phase for some time as I pointed out in my earlier article entitled<br />
Will Silver “Bump-and-Run” Down to $22/ozt? Time Will Tell But it Doesn’t Look Good.</p>
<p>As can be seen in the chart below, silver has been oscillating between the first and second target lines for almost three months and appears to be on the verge of breaching the second target line.</p>
<p>Silver could get well into a bear market going forward into 2012 with downside price targets as follows:</p>
<ol>
<li><strong>$31</strong> for support at the 2nd target line.</li>
<li><strong>$24</strong> for support at the 3rd target line.</li>
</ol>
<p><img src="http://www.kitco.com/ind/Yu/images/yu_20111213_2.gif" alt="" /></p>
<p><strong>Conclusion</strong></p>
<p>There you have it. As I have been saying for months now in my previous articles, as supported by my technical analyses as evidenced by the charts above, the outlook for gold (as low as $1600 and conceivably as low as $1000) and silver (as low as $31 and conceivably as low as $24) look rather bleak in the short term at least. It should prove to be a very interesting 2012.</p>
<p>The time has come to re-check the fundamentals, reality, and risks for gold and silver especially in light of the current bearish performances of all BRIC emerging markets, and the U.S. Fed’s Operation Twist.</p>
<p>Dr. Nu Yu</p>
<p align="center">****</p>
<p><strong>Dr. Nu Yu</strong> is managing partner and co-founder of Numarkan Investments and an affiliate of the Market Technicians Association. He publishes a Market Weekly Update on gold, silver, the U.S. dollar, the U.S. Treasury bond, and the S&amp;P 500 which can be accessed <a href="http://fx5186.wordpress.com/" target="_blank">here</a>. A version of the above article has been posted on <a href="http://fx5186.wordpress.com)" target="_blank">Dr. Yu’s site</a> and that of his editor, Lorimer Wilson (<a href="http://www.munKNEE.com/" target="_blank">www.munKNEE.com</a>  and<a href="http://www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com/" target="_blank">www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com</a>). Dr. Yu can be contacted at <a href="mailto:editor@munknee.com">editor@munknee.com</a>.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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		<title>This Rally will be Short Lived</title>
		<link>http://www.dodgingthedepression.com/this-rally-will-be-short-lived/</link>
		<comments>http://www.dodgingthedepression.com/this-rally-will-be-short-lived/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 05 Dec 2011 23:54:03 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[// // // ]]&#62; Santa Claus Rally?  Don&#8217;t Bet On It&#8230; by Robert Morris, Editor Dynamic Wealth Report Stocks soared last week to their biggest weekly gain since the autumn of 2008.  The Dow Jones Industrials closed at 12,019 for a sensational 7% rise.  It was the second biggest weekly point gain in the long, [...]]]></description>
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<p><strong><span style="font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Santa Claus Rally?  Don&#8217;t Bet On It&#8230;</span><br />
</strong><span style="font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">by Robert Morris, Editor Dynamic Wealth Report</span></p>
<p>Stocks soared last week to their biggest weekly gain since the autumn of 2008.  The Dow Jones Industrials closed at 12,019 for a sensational 7% rise.  It was the second biggest weekly point gain in the long, storied history of the index.</p>
<p>The other major measures of US stock prices also put in big gains for the week.  The S&amp;P 500 jumped 7.4% to just over 1,244.  And the Nasdaq Composite closed 7.6% higher to finish at just under 2,627.</p>
<p>Looking at these figures, you&#8217;d think we&#8217;re starting a major Santa Claus rally.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>But the truth is&#8230; it&#8217;s more of a relief Europe&#8217;s not necessarily sliding into the abyss rally.</strong></p>
<p>I know what you&#8217;re thinking.  Who cares why stocks are heading higher as long as they keep moving up?</p>
<p>It&#8217;s a great question.  I mean profits are profits no matter what the reason for the gains might be. <em> But the reason behind the rally is important to understand in order to gauge the strength and sustainability of the move.</em></p>
<p>Here&#8217;s why&#8230;</p>
<p>If the rally is due to structural improvement in the economy, it should have strong legs to carry stocks higher over the months ahead.  But if last week&#8217;s strong move was merely a sigh of relief over Europe finally getting its act together, the gains are more likely to be short-lived.</p>
<p><strong>Unfortunately, it looks to me like the rally is based on the latter reason.</strong></p>
<p>You see, the markets surged on Wednesday of last week after important news about the fate of Europe hit the wires.  The news was shocking to say the least.  In an unprecedented move, the Fed, along with five other central banks (including the European Central Bank and the Bank of Canada), announced a coordinated move to lower interest rates on dollar liquidity swaps.</p>
<p>In other words, the world&#8217;s major central banks worked together to make it cheaper for banks around the world to trade in US Dollars.  The liquidity infusion is expected to buy Europe more time to come up with a lasting solution to their sovereign debt crisis.</p>
<p>No doubt about it, this is good news.</p>
<p><strong>But it hardly merits a sustained upward move in the markets.</strong></p>
<p>At the end of the day, Europe still has a major crisis on its hands.  A number of EuroZone countries are at risk of defaulting on their debt.  And it will still be up to the stronger countries to bail out the weaker ones to save the EU from breaking apart.</p>
<p>Maybe I&#8217;m overly cynical, but I just don&#8217;t believe a bailout will work longer term.</p>
<p>A bailout can only work if Europe&#8217;s stronger countries, like France and Germany, will finance the bulk of it. <em> Call me crazy&#8230; but I don&#8217;t see the conservative German people being willing for long to underwrite the freewheeling spending habits of Greeks and Italians.</em></p>
<p>In fact, this reality may supplant last week&#8217;s fantasy by the end of the week.  On Friday, leaders from each of the 27 EU countries are expected to meet to discuss the latest plan to save the fragile union.  If they fail to reach an agreement, last week&#8217;s gains are as good as gone.</p>
<p><strong>So what should you do?</strong></p>
<p>Be careful about plunging into this rally with both feet.  If I&#8217;m right, the so-called Santa Claus rally could easily melt away before it gathers any real momentum.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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		<title>Where Are Silver Gold &amp; Stocks Headed</title>
		<link>http://www.dodgingthedepression.com/where-are-silver-gold-stocks-headed/</link>
		<comments>http://www.dodgingthedepression.com/where-are-silver-gold-stocks-headed/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 01 Dec 2011 15:50:26 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[The Currency War Big Picture Analysis for Gold, Silver and Stocks By Chris Vermeulen        Dec 1 2011 10:22AM www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com I think you will admit that we are in the middle of one major crazy financial mess.  The part that makes things really crazy is that it’s not just in the United States anymore but rather [...]]]></description>
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<p align="left"><strong>The Currency War Big Picture Analysis for Gold, Silver and Stocks</strong></p>
</td>
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<td align="center" width="50"><img src="http://www.kitco.com/ind/Vermeulen/images/vermeulen.jpg" alt="" /></td>
<td>By Chris Vermeulen    <a href="http://www.kitco.com/ind/vermeulen/dec012011.html"><img src="http://www.kitco.com/images/commmentary/bio.gif" alt="" width="20" height="14" align="bottom" border="0" /></a> <a href="mailto:Chris@theGoildAndOilGuy.com"><img src="http://www.kitco.com/images/mailicon.gif" alt="" width="27" height="23" align="bottom" border="0" /></a> <a href="http://www.kitco.com/ind/vermeulen/printerfriendly/dec012011.html"><img src="http://www.kitco.com/images/printicon.gif" alt="Printer Friendly Version" width="27" height="23" align="bottom" border="0" /></a> <a href="http://www.addthis.com/bookmark.php?v=20"><img src="http://s7.addthis.com/static/btn/lg-addthis-en.gif" alt="Bookmark and Share" width="125" height="16" /></a><br />
Dec 1 2011 10:22AM</td>
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<td align="center" width="50"><img src="http://www.kitco.com/images/commmentary/share/bg_trans.gif" alt="" width="50" height="8" /></td>
<td><a href="http://www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com/">www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com</a></td>
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<p align="left">I think you will admit that we are in the middle of one major crazy financial mess.  The part that makes things really crazy is that it’s not just in the United States anymore but rather serious global problem which if not handled properly could change the way we live our lives going forward or possibly even spark some type of war, hopefully things don’t get that crazy… But I do know one thing. Fear is the most powerful force on the planet and people do some crazy things when they are backed into a corner.</p>
<p align="left">Anyways, on a more positive tone… today China decided to help provide more liquidity for the financial system along with the central banks. This news triggered a monster rally in overnight trading making the market gap up sharply at the opening bell. This news did hit the US dollar index hard sending it sharply lower but the question remains “Will today’s news be a one week hiccup in the market?” If Euroland starts printing money it will likely send the dollar higher and stocks lower for 6- 12 months.</p>
<p align="left">Just today I was joking with <strong><em>Kerry Lutz of the Financial Survivor Network</em></strong> about how each country should just give each other country a second chance. Wipe the dept clean and start over knowing this time around exactly how each country truly operates at a financial level allowing everyone to avoid a repeat of this BS. Some countries will get off way better than others because they would get so much dept wiped clean but isn’t it better than years of problems and possibly wars over food, gold, guns, oil and Canadian water? – EH</p>
<p align="left">All joking aside, let’s take a look at the weekly long term charts…</p>
<p align="left">Dollar Index Showing Possible Massive Rally If Euro Starts Printing Money:</p>
<p align="left">I’m sure my off the cuff options/thoughts will cause a stir but I am fine with that. Everyone I talk to is thinking the dollar is about to fall off a cliff while I think it’s very possible that it does just the opposite. Either way I will be looking to benefit from which ever move unfolds.</p>
<p align="left"><a href="http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/articles/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/DollarLongTermForecast.jpg"><img src="http://www.kitco.com/ind/Vermeulen/images/dec012011_1.jpg" alt="http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/articles/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/DollarLongTermForecast.jpg" border="0" /></a></p>
<p align="left">Weekly Gold Chart:</p>
<p align="left"><a href="http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/articles/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/GoldLongTermForecast.jpg"><img src="http://www.kitco.com/ind/Vermeulen/images/dec012011_2.jpg" alt="http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/articles/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/GoldLongTermForecast.jpg" border="0" /></a></p>
<p align="left">Weekly Silver Chart:</p>
<p align="left"><a href="http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/articles/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/SilverLongTermForecast.jpg"><img src="http://www.kitco.com/ind/Vermeulen/images/dec012011_3.jpg" alt="http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/articles/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/SilverLongTermForecast.jpg" border="0" /></a></p>
<p align="left">Weekly SP500 Chart:</p>
<p align="left"><a href="http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/articles/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/SP500LongTermForecast.jpg"><img src="http://www.kitco.com/ind/Vermeulen/images/dec012011_4.jpg" alt="http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/articles/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/SP500LongTermForecast.jpg" border="0" /></a></p>
<p align="left">Long Term Thoughts:</p>
<p align="left">I would first like to say that tonight’s report is out of my norm. Generally I do not focus on the big picture negative stuff and I like to avoid it for a few reasons… One, it’s just downright depressing to talk and think about. And Second I don’t want to be labelled as one of those “The Sky Is Falling” kinds of guys.</p>
<p align="left">So, that being said I think these charts above show a situation what is very possible to happen in the coming 6-12 months. Keep in mind that my focus is on short term time frames as it allows me to avoid and actually profit from major market moves while providing enough information for my followers to learn technical analysis and trade management. And the obvious idea of not looking too far into the future with a negative outlook…</p>
<p align="left">With headline risk changing the market direction on a weekly basis, this negative outlook could easily change in a couple months. I will recap on the big picture as things unfold in January/February.</p>
<p align="left">Talk to you soon,</p>
<p><strong>By Chris Vermeulen</strong></p>
<div><strong><br />
</strong></div>
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		<title>Decline From May 2 Top is Not Over Yet</title>
		<link>http://www.dodgingthedepression.com/decline-from-may-2-top-is-not-over-yet/</link>
		<comments>http://www.dodgingthedepression.com/decline-from-may-2-top-is-not-over-yet/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 25 Nov 2011 13:51:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[// // // ]]&#62; We made a top on May 2 and we are in the process of making a Minor Wave (1) of Large Wave 3 Circle Down . Minor Wave (1) itself has 5 steps in it.We completed Step one down in August. It was followed by a step 2 up completed on [...]]]></description>
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<p>We made a top on May 2 and we are in the process of making a Minor Wave<br />
(1)  of Large Wave 3 Circle Down . Minor Wave (1) itself has 5 steps in it.We completed Step one down in August. It was followed by a step 2 up<br />
completed on Oct 28. We are going down in step 3  of Minor Wave (1).It will be followed by step 4 up and then step 5 down.This will complete only Minor Wave (1) of large Wave 3 Circle Down. Thus we are only at the start of a very big decline which will become more ferocious next year.<a href='http://www.dodgingthedepression.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/SPX-2011-11-25_0500.pdf' target="_blank"> S&#038; P 500 SPX 2011-11-25_0500</a><br />
We are at present oversold a bit and 200 to 300 point rally can start any time from lower levels.All rallies should be sold.<br />
Notice how TZA (which is triple Bear of Russell 2000 RUT} is marching  up while the market is going down in a stair step down fashion.<a href='http://www.dodgingthedepression.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/TZA-2011-11-25_0543.pdf' target="_blank">TZA 2011-11-25_0543</a><br />
TZA and FAZ are best tools for Dodge the Depression.These ETFs are  your best friends right now for traders. </p>
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		<title>Death of Europe As we Know in 2012?</title>
		<link>http://www.dodgingthedepression.com/death-of-europe-as-we-know-in-2012/</link>
		<comments>http://www.dodgingthedepression.com/death-of-europe-as-we-know-in-2012/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 25 Nov 2011 12:24:04 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[// Nov. 23 (Bloomberg) &#8212; James Shugg, a senior economist at Westpac Banking Corp., talks about the outlook for the euro zone in 2012 and the role of the European Central Bank in backing indebted nations. He speaks with Maryam Nemazee on Bloomberg Television&#8217;s &#8220;The Pulse.&#8221; (Source: Bloomberg)]]></description>
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<p>Nov. 23 (Bloomberg) &#8212; James Shugg, a senior economist at Westpac Banking Corp., talks about the outlook for the euro zone in 2012 and the role of the European Central Bank in backing indebted nations. He speaks with Maryam Nemazee on Bloomberg Television&#8217;s &#8220;The Pulse.&#8221; (Source: Bloomberg)<br />
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		<title>Is Goldman Sachs to the Rescue?</title>
		<link>http://www.dodgingthedepression.com/is-goldman-sachs-to-the-rescue/</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 15 Nov 2011 23:31:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[// // // ]]&#62; No matter what they do now, the markets cannot be saved from the big coming decline. Read an interesting article below!!! Goldman to the Rescue! By Bill Bonner More pieces are coming together. Day by day, the puzzle takes shape. Not a pretty picture. An epic battle is taking place. Between [...]]]></description>
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<p>No matter what they do now, the markets cannot be saved from the big coming decline. Read an interesting article below!!!</p>
<p><strong>Goldman to the Rescue!</strong></p>
<p>By<br />
Bill Bonner<br />
More pieces are coming together. Day by day, the puzzle takes shape. Not a pretty picture.</p>
<p>An epic battle is taking place. Between the forces of&#8230;</p>
<p>..inflation and deflation</p>
<p>..growth and depression</p>
<p>..credit expansion and credit destruction</p>
<p>..centralization and de-centralization</p>
<p>..politics and markets</p>
<p>..managed paper money and gold</p>
<p>..managed capitalism and the real thing</p>
<p>..control and wealth</p>
<p>..bull and bear</p>
<p>..greed and fear</p>
<p>..zombies and real working people.</p>
<p>Yes, dear reader, it’s quite a fight. Better than Frazier vs. Ali. And who’s gonna win?</p>
<p>Europe faces its “toughest hour since WWII,” says Angela Merkel. What does she propose? More centralization. Centralization got Europe into this mess — harmonizing interest rates so that the Greeks and Italians could borrow more. And now, more centralization, she believes, will get it out.</p>
<p>Europe is taking no chances. This debt problem is a slugger. What to do about it?</p>
<p>Who knows more about debt problems than anyone else? The people who cause them, of course. So, under great pressure from the centralized European authorities, Greece got rid of its Papandreou, after the man had the gall to suggest letting democracy work. He wanted the people to vote on further austerity measures. It replaced him with Papademos&#8230;a guy who won’t make the mistake of deferring to the masses. After all, he was vice-president of the European Central Bank for years. And he taught at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, Italy too has been forced to get rid of its popular, but difficult to control, elected leader — Silvio Berlusconi. It has put in a company man. Yes, a company man. What company? Goldman Sachs, of course. The new fellow, Mario Monti is an ex-Goldman guy. And so is the new fellow at the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi. Monti was also an EU commissioner. Draghi ran the Bank of Italy as the nation built up one of the world’s biggest piles of debt. Then, when Italy’s cost of borrowing shot over 7%, in came Monti and Draghi.</p>
<p>It is almost as if they planned it that way. Who’s the biggest seller of debt on the planet? We don’t know&#8230;but Goldman Sachs has to be up in the rankings somewhere. You’ll recall it was Goldman that helped Greece structure its debt so that it could abide by the letter of its treaty engagements with Europe but totally thumb its nose at the spirit of it.</p>
<p>And now the debt has blown up&#8230;and the Goldman boys are on the job, managing the mess they were so instrumental in creating.</p>
<p>What’s their solution? Oh come on&#8230;dear reader, you should know how this works by now. They propose more centralization, more management, more paper money, more debt, more inflation, more of everything you see on the right hand of our column above.</p>
<p>In other words, they believe that they know better than the people&#8230;or the market. They believe that their sanitized, homogenized, pasteurized Capitalism-in-a-Can works better than the real thing. Besides, they have a reason to believe it. This claptrap is the source of their power, status and money. Who knows, maybe their wives married them because of it.</p>
<p>Rather than renounce the program on which their reputations, careers and fortunes depend, they try to shore it up. They open up the can and see what they can use. They promise to reform the system, not reject it.</p>
<p>But every reform — unless it merely dismantles one of their previous reforms — is a manipulation&#8230;a price fix&#8230;and a scam. For example, they are proposing tax incentives to employers who hire youths and women. Good idea? Why not just drop some of the regulations and taxes that make it so expensive to hire youths and women in the first place? Nope. Then, they’d be giving up control. They’d be letting market forces decide who gets what.</p>
<p>Here’s another proposed reform, as reported in The Financial Times: “Wider social safety net to help those made redundant (laid off) and encourage labor mobility.” Typical rubbish. Spread a wider safety net and you discourage people from doing the hard work of finding new careers. But here’s one that will be popular with the managers: a “crackdown on tax evasion.” Are you kidding? Tax evasion is the only thing that keeps these economies going. People prevent their government from squandering their money. They spend it themselves. But the new Goldman guys won’t like it. They’ll want to get their hands on as much of that ‘black money’ as possible.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, what’s going on in the USA? Alas, the US economy is the hands of the same sort of people. The people who caused the mess&#8230;who did not see it coming&#8230;and who have not had a clue what to do about it. They’re still running US economic policy. These illustrious incompetents — such as Larry Summers of Obama’s National Economic Council and Tim Geithner, his Treasury Secretary — have proven that they wouldn’t know a Great Correction if it bit them on the behind&#8230;</p>
<p>So, they just keep adding more debt, more spending, more management, more ‘reform’ measures, and more centralization.</p>
<p>Ultimately, the elite managers of Europe and America all went to the same schools (Harvard, Yale, MIT&#8230;)&#8230;all read the same newspapers and magazines (The Financial Times and The Economist)&#8230;all worship the same gods (money and power)&#8230;all speak the same language (mid- Atlantic English)&#8230;and all want to control the world.</p>
<p>So far, they seem to be making great progress towards their objectives. They stuff the world with debt. It blows up. Then, they push out democratically-elected leaders&#8230;gain new power and authority&#8230;and take charge of the rescue.</p>
<p>Regards,</p>
<p>Bill Bonner<br />
for The Daily Reckoning</p>
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