Will Indian Miracle Continue?
January 1, 2012 2012, the year when Lokpal movement will play a bigger role
Dec. 18, 2011 See The Article Below
Hardly "Incredible India"
By Alistair Scrutton and Manoj Kumar
NEW DELHI (Reuters) - Frustrated executives while away time in five-star hotels waiting for deals that never come, and civil servants play video games in their offices - growing signs of the reform limbo and crisis of confidence behind India's economic malaise.
Policy paralysis, corruption scandals and a government fearful of political backlash to any bold moves have combined with the global slowdown and worsening domestic finances in the last few months to derail Asia's third-largest economy.
India now faces the worst-case scenario that was touted earlier this year - stubbornly high inflation, slowing growth, a mounting fiscal deficit, a rupee that risks freefall -- and both policymakers and the Reserve Bank of India (:RBIRBInull) have few levers to fix it.
For years, Indian entrepreneurs have boasted they can do business despite the government - adeptly working around potholed roads, clogged ports and reams of regulatory hurdles.
But government inertia - what many politicians see as "playing safe" - is taking its toll on corporate confidence.
Entrepreneurs once feted in Bollywood movies as national heroes, whose million-dollar homes and jetset lifestyles were a beacon for millions of India's aspiring middle classes, no longer seem capable of driving the $1.6 trillion economy.
"We may have seen phases of economic growth slower than this in the two post-reform decades, but never has the entrepreneurial mood been so low," wrote Shekhar Gupta, editor-in-chief of the Indian Express.
It's echoed across offices of business leaders from Mumbai to Delhi. One foreign executive described increasingly strained telephone conversations over the past year with his U.S.-based CEO as deals became mired in red tape and ministerial inertia.
"They always understood that India was difficult to do business in. But not this difficult," said the executive, who asked not to be named as he was not authorised to speak for his company.
The banking sector is now under strain from bad loans.
Economic reforms that may bring in much-needed foreign investment, such as opening up the supermarket sector to the likes of Wal-Mart Stores Inc (NYSE:WMT - NewsWMT.N), have been put on hold as political parties eye important state polls next year.
Even reforms seen as no-brainers politically, such as the introduction of a digitalised national ID card or food subsidies for the poor, have faced delays as opposition parties and coalition partners smell blood ahead of a 2014 general election.
FROM COCKY TO FEARFUL
India used to be full of brash business leaders.
When Tata Steel (:TISC.NSTISC.NS) bought an Anglo-Dutch rival in 2007 for $12 billion, the newspaper headline "Empire Strikes Back" epitomised the supreme confidence of India's aggressive capitalist kingpins then on a global buying spree. Jaguar, Land Rover and other foreign brands soon followed into Indian hands.
The economy may grow at under 7 percent this fiscal year, down from initial forecasts of 9 percent. That's still a far cry from the around 3.5 percent "Hindu" rate of growth that plagued the decades after India's independence from Britain in 1947.
But these last few heady years have changed expectations.
These days, growth below 7 percent is enough for investors to delay projects, for banks to put off loans and for voters to get angry: 7 percent is the new 2-3 percent.
It was corruption scams surfacing over a year ago that may have started it - a potentially $39 billion scam involving selling telecoms licenses at rock-bottom prices effectively saw distracted politicians asleep at the economic wheel.
Suddenly politicians were jailed and billionaires questioned by police. It sent shudders through the political class. The invincibility of the political "untouchables" disappeared.
Inside India's famously bureaucratic ministries, middle-level civil servants passed the buck to top-level officials who in turn passed the buck to their reluctant political masters.
One defence contractor, who asked to not be named due to the sensitivity of the issue, recounted spending weeks at a top hotel, sipping drinks every evening with fellow frustrated arms dealers waiting for "imminent" defence ministry decisions that never came.
An Indian executive likened the country's economic malaise and government's reform limbo to an old village adage - a bullock knows that if it goes to work in the field it could get whipped, while the animal that lazes around far away does not.
"Once the spotlight is on, even minor mistakes become noticeable," said the vice-president of an infrastructure firm about a slowdown in decision making ever since corruption scandals broke last year. "That's why nobody wants to take decisions."
Many civil servants have been seen playing computer games during official hours when parliament sessions are adjourned or their minister goes on trips for G20 or World Bank meetings, according to one government official.
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh may be reform-minded. But with real power lying with the populist-inclined Sonia Gandhi, he has been unable or unwilling to press for new steps to modernise and open up the economy.
With Gandhi ill, reportedly with cancer, there are signs the family dynasty that has run India for decades has lost its bearings, increasingly unable to keep its coalition partners in line as parties jostle for power before the 2014 election.
The cabinet's one sudden announcement of major reform - allowing foreign firms to hold 51 percent stakes in the supermarket sector - may have been partly driven by economic panic as the rupee plummeted, with Asia's worst-performing currency suffering from capital flight to safe havens like U.S. Treasuries.
But Singh's about-turn only 10 days later in the face of a political backlash underscored that, even at a time of alarm over the economy, politics and the concern about forthcoming elections took precedence.
FLOWS SLOW, CONFIDENCE EBBS
India's annual financing requirement of $119 billion is the highest in Asia, according to a Nomura report. The trade gap for the fiscal year to March 2012 is expected to widen sharply to $155-$160 billion from $104.4 billion a year ago.
Foreign funds are net sellers of about $300 million of Indian shares this year in sharp contrast to record investment of more than $29 billion in 2010, and the 30-share BSE Sensex is down more than 23 percent, making it the worst-performing major global market this year.
"Industry is geared up to deliver infrastructure in line with the strong growth pattern and the government's forecasts," said Russell Waugh, managing director of Leighton Welspun Contractors, part of Australia's Leighton Holdings (ASX:LEI.AX - NewsLEI.AX).
"But the flow (of new projects) at the moment, the real flow, is not aligned with that gearing. So we're seeing most companies struggling."
Infrastructure assets, including telecoms, construction and power, which account for about 25 percent of total corporate credit, are now a key concern for banks.
Worries about rising bad loans prompted Moody's Investors Service earlier this month to cut its outlook on India's banking sector to "negative" from "stable", saying monetary tightening and a slowdown in the economy would cut bank loan growth.
The car industry - a symbol of the aspirations of millions of India's middle classes - is now an example of how slipping growth and high interest rates have hit consumer demand and investment decisions.
Car sales in India, which jumped 30 percent in the last fiscal year, have slumped due to high interest rates and rising input costs. Sales may just break even this fiscal year.
Maruti Suzuki (:MRTI.NSMRTI.NS), India's biggest automaker, is deferring an investment of $560-740 million in plants in the western state of Gujarat due to the economic gloom.
"When we will start work in Gujarat will depend on how the market improves in the future ... at the moment the general economic situation is too negative to justify it," Maruti Chairman R. C. Bhargava told Reuters. "There's no point creating excess capacity if the demand is not there."
NO QUICK FIX
There is no quick fix for the government, with the fiscal deficit set to beat its target of 4.6 percent of GDP. But there is little sign of efforts to help investment, including speeding up approvals of projects hit by red tape and environmental approvals.
One official, monitoring government infrastructure projects, said that of 558 government projects, 241 were delayed as of end-July, resulting in a cost overrun of some 20 percent, or more than $31 billion.
The projects, which include setting up airports, new railway lines, shipping ports, roads and power plants, have been delayed by more than two years on average due to issues of land acquisition, environmental clearance and rising costs.
Senior government officials, who declined to be named, described a finance ministry dominated by 76-year-old Pranab Mukherjee, who is more adept at bringing together unruly coalition allies than doing anything bold about the economy.
"Mukherjee is a politician first with little time for his own ministry as he is also the chief trouble shooter for the Congress party. Many bureaucrats don't even get to see him for days and have no access to him," said one.
"His style is very old world and some say not very responsive to financial markets. It's not surprising that in a crisis like what's confronting us currently, lack of imaginative leadership in the treasury department is also reflecting in the economic woes facing the country."
Mukherjee first became finance minister in 1982, way before India had begun to rethink its post-independence socialist, state-driven economic model.
For many, India will remain in limbo only until a real crisis prompts it to act - similar to the 1991 balance of payments crisis that ushered in the country's first economic reforms under Singh, who was then finance minister.
"At the end of the day, I feel you need crisis to get going again," said V Ravichander, who advises multinationals on doing business. "And even though our growth rates have fallen from 8 to 6.9 percent on the last estimate, I guess people feel 6.9 is not still low enough for us to do something about it."
But that inertia could means India faces some turbulent years ahead, exacerbated by the 2014 election that may just polarise the country further.
"The new Hindu Rate of Growth is 6 percent and on all evidence, from macroeconomic data to the empty billboards of Mumbai, we're headed there next year," wrote Gupta.
"Returning to economic stagnation like that is bad enough by itself. But this is not the forgiving India of the past. This India has tasted growth, progress, optimism and aspiration."
(Additional reporting by Matthias Williams in New Delhi; Henry Foy, Swati Pandey, Rajesh Kurup and Ketan Bondre in Mumbai; Editing by John Chalmers and Ian Geoghegan)
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Gold& Silver Can Go Lower
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Stock Market Going Much Lower Below DJI 10400.Gold also Going Much Lower.See the article below Gold Could Go Down to $1,600/ozt. – Even Lower – in this Correction! Here’s Why |
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Gold is in the bump phase of a seven-year Bump-and-Run Reversal Top pattern which typically occurs when excessive speculation drives prices up steeply, and is now at a critical juncture which could change the long-term trend of gold. Silver is already in the run phase which does not bode well for its future price. Let me explain.
According to Thomas Bulkowski, the Bump-and-Run Reversal Top pattern consists of three main phases:
- A lead-in phase in which a lead-in trend line connecting the lows has a slope angle of about 30 degrees. Prices move in an orderly manner and the range of price oscillation defines the lead-in height between the lead-in trend line and the warning line which is parallel to the lead-in trend line.
- A bump phase where, after prices cross above the warning line, excessive speculation kicks in and the bump phase starts with fast rising prices following a sharp trend line slope with 45 degrees or more until prices reach a bump height with at least twice the lead-in height. Once the second parallel line gets crossed over, it serves as a sell line.
- A run phase in which prices break support from the lead-in trend line in a downhill run.
A Look at the Future for Gold
The seven year weekly chart below for gold offers a cautious early view regarding the long term trend of gold and is an updated version of a previous article entitled How Low Will Gold Go in This Correction? Gold has been in the bump phase of the Bump-and-Run Reversal Top pattern since late 2009 after almost three years in the lead-in phase.
As can be seen in the chart below the major decline over the past few days has dragged the price of gold sharply below the sell line which suggests the formation of a long-term Bump-and-Run Reversal Top for gold.
If prices keep staying in the territory under the sell line, gold could get into a bear market going forward into 2012 with downside price targets as follows:
- $1,600 for support from the trend line of last three years.
- $1,400 for support from the warning line.
- $1,000 for support from the lead-in trend line.
A Look at the Future for Silver
Silver also has a bearish picture with a bump-and-run reversal top pattern in its intermediate-term timeframe. Silver has been in this run phase for some time as I pointed out in my earlier article entitled
Will Silver “Bump-and-Run” Down to $22/ozt? Time Will Tell But it Doesn’t Look Good.
As can be seen in the chart below, silver has been oscillating between the first and second target lines for almost three months and appears to be on the verge of breaching the second target line.
Silver could get well into a bear market going forward into 2012 with downside price targets as follows:
- $31 for support at the 2nd target line.
- $24 for support at the 3rd target line.
Conclusion
There you have it. As I have been saying for months now in my previous articles, as supported by my technical analyses as evidenced by the charts above, the outlook for gold (as low as $1600 and conceivably as low as $1000) and silver (as low as $31 and conceivably as low as $24) look rather bleak in the short term at least. It should prove to be a very interesting 2012.
The time has come to re-check the fundamentals, reality, and risks for gold and silver especially in light of the current bearish performances of all BRIC emerging markets, and the U.S. Fed’s Operation Twist.
Dr. Nu Yu
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Dr. Nu Yu is managing partner and co-founder of Numarkan Investments and an affiliate of the Market Technicians Association. He publishes a Market Weekly Update on gold, silver, the U.S. dollar, the U.S. Treasury bond, and the S&P 500 which can be accessed here. A version of the above article has been posted on Dr. Yu’s site and that of his editor, Lorimer Wilson (www.munKNEE.com andwww.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com). Dr. Yu can be contacted at editor@munknee.com.
This Rally will be Short Lived
Santa Claus Rally? Don’t Bet On It…
by Robert Morris, Editor Dynamic Wealth Report
Stocks soared last week to their biggest weekly gain since the autumn of 2008. The Dow Jones Industrials closed at 12,019 for a sensational 7% rise. It was the second biggest weekly point gain in the long, storied history of the index.
The other major measures of US stock prices also put in big gains for the week. The S&P 500 jumped 7.4% to just over 1,244. And the Nasdaq Composite closed 7.6% higher to finish at just under 2,627.
Looking at these figures, you’d think we’re starting a major Santa Claus rally.
But the truth is… it’s more of a relief Europe’s not necessarily sliding into the abyss rally.
I know what you’re thinking. Who cares why stocks are heading higher as long as they keep moving up?
It’s a great question. I mean profits are profits no matter what the reason for the gains might be. But the reason behind the rally is important to understand in order to gauge the strength and sustainability of the move.
Here’s why…
If the rally is due to structural improvement in the economy, it should have strong legs to carry stocks higher over the months ahead. But if last week’s strong move was merely a sigh of relief over Europe finally getting its act together, the gains are more likely to be short-lived.
Unfortunately, it looks to me like the rally is based on the latter reason.
You see, the markets surged on Wednesday of last week after important news about the fate of Europe hit the wires. The news was shocking to say the least. In an unprecedented move, the Fed, along with five other central banks (including the European Central Bank and the Bank of Canada), announced a coordinated move to lower interest rates on dollar liquidity swaps.
In other words, the world’s major central banks worked together to make it cheaper for banks around the world to trade in US Dollars. The liquidity infusion is expected to buy Europe more time to come up with a lasting solution to their sovereign debt crisis.
No doubt about it, this is good news.
But it hardly merits a sustained upward move in the markets.
At the end of the day, Europe still has a major crisis on its hands. A number of EuroZone countries are at risk of defaulting on their debt. And it will still be up to the stronger countries to bail out the weaker ones to save the EU from breaking apart.
Maybe I’m overly cynical, but I just don’t believe a bailout will work longer term.
A bailout can only work if Europe’s stronger countries, like France and Germany, will finance the bulk of it. Call me crazy… but I don’t see the conservative German people being willing for long to underwrite the freewheeling spending habits of Greeks and Italians.
In fact, this reality may supplant last week’s fantasy by the end of the week. On Friday, leaders from each of the 27 EU countries are expected to meet to discuss the latest plan to save the fragile union. If they fail to reach an agreement, last week’s gains are as good as gone.
So what should you do?
Be careful about plunging into this rally with both feet. If I’m right, the so-called Santa Claus rally could easily melt away before it gathers any real momentum.
Where Are Silver Gold & Stocks Headed
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The Currency War Big Picture Analysis for Gold, Silver and Stocks |
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I think you will admit that we are in the middle of one major crazy financial mess. The part that makes things really crazy is that it’s not just in the United States anymore but rather serious global problem which if not handled properly could change the way we live our lives going forward or possibly even spark some type of war, hopefully things don’t get that crazy… But I do know one thing. Fear is the most powerful force on the planet and people do some crazy things when they are backed into a corner.
Anyways, on a more positive tone… today China decided to help provide more liquidity for the financial system along with the central banks. This news triggered a monster rally in overnight trading making the market gap up sharply at the opening bell. This news did hit the US dollar index hard sending it sharply lower but the question remains “Will today’s news be a one week hiccup in the market?” If Euroland starts printing money it will likely send the dollar higher and stocks lower for 6- 12 months.
Just today I was joking with Kerry Lutz of the Financial Survivor Network about how each country should just give each other country a second chance. Wipe the dept clean and start over knowing this time around exactly how each country truly operates at a financial level allowing everyone to avoid a repeat of this BS. Some countries will get off way better than others because they would get so much dept wiped clean but isn’t it better than years of problems and possibly wars over food, gold, guns, oil and Canadian water? – EH
All joking aside, let’s take a look at the weekly long term charts…
Dollar Index Showing Possible Massive Rally If Euro Starts Printing Money:
I’m sure my off the cuff options/thoughts will cause a stir but I am fine with that. Everyone I talk to is thinking the dollar is about to fall off a cliff while I think it’s very possible that it does just the opposite. Either way I will be looking to benefit from which ever move unfolds.
Weekly Gold Chart:
Weekly Silver Chart:
Weekly SP500 Chart:
Long Term Thoughts:
I would first like to say that tonight’s report is out of my norm. Generally I do not focus on the big picture negative stuff and I like to avoid it for a few reasons… One, it’s just downright depressing to talk and think about. And Second I don’t want to be labelled as one of those “The Sky Is Falling” kinds of guys.
So, that being said I think these charts above show a situation what is very possible to happen in the coming 6-12 months. Keep in mind that my focus is on short term time frames as it allows me to avoid and actually profit from major market moves while providing enough information for my followers to learn technical analysis and trade management. And the obvious idea of not looking too far into the future with a negative outlook…
With headline risk changing the market direction on a weekly basis, this negative outlook could easily change in a couple months. I will recap on the big picture as things unfold in January/February.
Talk to you soon,
By Chris Vermeulen
